GROWTH CONVERGENCE IN SOUTH AMERICA

This study analyzed the influence of structural change on GDP convergence in Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay (ABU) in the context of a Keynesian model with balance of payments constraints. Empirical evidence suggested that income and structural convergence were associated in the post-II World War period. The differences in industrial and economic policies in ABU may have contributed to explain the intensity of the process of structural change in these countries. ABU exhibited a different ability to reshape their institutions with a view to encouraging industrial transformation. The Brazilian industrial policy seems to have been more efficient in promoting structural convergence.Institutional and Behavioral Economics,

Structural change under New Labour

The paper examines specific features of structural change in the UK since 1997, contrasting the decline in industrial jobs with the rise in a variety of service jobs. It examines the proximate causes of structural change, in particular whether the chronically slow growth of manufacturing output in the 1980s has persisted. The implications of this structural change are considered, particularly the effects on the balance of payments and regional employment patterns. The paper suggests that the main impact of government policies on regional employment may have been through the direct and multiplier effects of public expenditure

Emerging Patterns of Manufacturing Structural Change

In the past, research on changes in relative importance among broad three sectors— agriculture, industry, and service—showed general patterns of a country’s structural transformation along with economic development. However, there has been devoid of empirical studies investigating in the structural change within the manufacturing sector, which often plays a role of the engine in economic growth. Our analysis looks into the evolution of production structures prevailing at certain development stages while controlling for country-given characteristics such as size, resource endowments, and others. This can provide an industrial policy framework for structural change facilitation that can lead to sustained economic development in the long run.industrial development, growth, industrial policy, manufacturing development patterns, comparative advantage

Forecasting industrial production with linear, nonlinear, and structural change models

We compare the forecasting performance of linear autoregressive models, autoregressive models with structural breaks, self-exciting threshold autoregressive models, and Markov switching autoregressive models in terms of point, interval, and density forecasts for h-month growth rates of industrial production of the G7 countries, for the period January 1960-December 2000. The results of point forecast evaluation tests support the established notion in the forecasting literature on the favorable performance of the linear AR model. By contrast, the Markov switching models render more accurate interval and density forecasts than the other models, including the linear AR model. This encouraging finding supports the idea that non-linear models may outperform linear competitors in terms of describing the uncertainty around future realizations of a time series.nonlinearity;structural change;density forecasts;forecast evaluation tests;interval forecasts

Market Integration: Case Studies of Structural Change

The grain/oilseed industry is undergoing considerable structural change through mergers and new value-added businesses, which raises price-related questions. We analyze the level of price integration prior to and following a merger between two grain firms and the start-up of a producer-owned ethanol facility. This research utilizes error correction vector autoregression analysis to compute market integration structural change effects. We find evidence that market integration initially increases with the merger, but deteriorates with time following the merger. We find no significant localized change in the level of price integration for the case of a new value-added business.consolidation, structural change, price integration, Agribusiness, Industrial Organization,

Why did the energy intensity fall in China's industrial sector in the 1990s? the relative importance of structural change and intensity change

There have been a variety of studies investigating the relative importance of structural change and real intensity change to the change in China’s energy consumption in the 1980s. However, no detailed analysis to date has been done to examine whether or not the increased energy efficiency trend in the 1980s still prevailed in the 1990s. This article has filled this gap by investigating the change in energy consumption in China’s industrial sector in the 1990s, based on the data sets of value added and end-use energy consumption for the 29 industrial subsectors and using the newly proposed decomposition method of giving no residual. Our results clearly show that the overwhelming contributor to the decline in industrial energy use in the 1990s was the decline in real energy intensity, indicating that the trend of real energy intensity declines in the 1980s at the 2-digit level was still maintained in the 1990s. This conclusion still holds even if we lower the growth rate dramatically in line with the belief that the growth rate of China’s GDP may be overestimated.China; decomposition method; energy; structural change; energy intensity change

Structural change and industrial policy in Turkey

This paper presents evidence on structural change in Turkey and provides an overview of the evolution of industrial policy in the last three decades. Turkey has experienced substantial growth in labor productivity in the last decade. About two thirds of the increase in aggregate labor productivity arises from reallocation of employment from low to high productivity sectors and one third from productivity increases within sectors. Decomposition of productivity growth using micro-data also reveals an important contribution from reallocation. We also document substantial change in the composition of exports. We argue that structural change was not a direct result of selective industrial policy, simply because the incentive system displayed little sectoral selectivity during the period when major structural change took place

MARKET INTEGRATION: CASE STUDIES OF STRUCTURAL CHANGE

The grain/oilseed industry is undergoing considerable structural change in the form of mergers and the addition of new processing facilities to add value beyond commodity grade. The rapid structural changes in this industry call into question the relevance of previous research conducted in these areas. Focusing on two structural change events in northeast Missouri as case studies provides an incisive glimpse at the larger impact of structural change on the grain/oilseed industry. This study addresses the merger of Archer Daniels Midland and Quincy Grain, and the opening of a producer-owned ethanol plant in northeast Missouri to determine if these structural change events altered pricing patterns and linkages in Missouri grain/oilseed markets, and assess the need for re-specification of conventional economic models for price analysis in cases of potential structural change. This research utilizes a three-tier statistical analysis of cointegration tests, Flexible Least Squares analysis, and impulse response functions derived from Vector Autoregressive modeling to investigate the Law of One Price and price relationships among four Missouri grain/oilseed markets. The results are consistent with the Law of One Price, supporting the ideology that markets work, and implying that localized structural change may not significantly affect research shelf-life.Ethanol, Consolidation, Structural Change, Industrial Organization,

New Challanges for Industrial Policy

This paper calls for a fresh look at industrial policies in the light of recent trends and developments in the global economy. In particular, five new challenges and their implications for industrial policies are discussed. These have been neglected in the debate on industrial policy and include (i) the increasing globalization of the world economy, most pertinently the rise of global production sharing, (ii) the recent crises in food, fuel and financial markets, (iii) climate change, (iv) the rise of China and India, and (v) the rise of the ‘entrepreneurial economy’. Directions for further research are outlined. This paper is a follow-up to the earlier WIDER Working Paper entitled ‘Industrial Policy: Old and New Issues’.industrial policy, structural transformation, development, financial crisis, climate change